Scientists are making strides in predicting solar storms, potentially protecting Earth’s critical infrastructure from disruption. These developments come as solar activity intensifies, presenting a real threat.
Progress in forecasting solar flares may soon allow for more precise warnings and the protection of critical infrastructure on Earth, according to a press release from the Royal Astronomical Society. Solar flares, particularly coronal mass ejections (CMEs), pose a serious threat to technology both in space and on Earth. These massive explosions of gas and magnetic fields from the sun’s atmosphere can trigger geomagnetic storms that disrupt satellites, power grids, and communication systems. However, new research may soon enable scientists to predict these events with greater accuracy, which is especially crucial as solar storm activity increases. Experts are warning of a “real threat.”
“Active regions” on the sun offer clues about solar storms
Researchers at Aberystwyth University have been studying specific areas on the sun known as “Active Regions,” which are characterized by strong magnetic fields and are the origin of CMEs. The researchers observed how these areas changed during the periods before, during, and after an eruption. A key aspect they studied was the “critical height” of the Active Regions, the height at which the magnetic field becomes unstable and can lead to a CME.
“By measuring how the strength of the magnetic field decreases with height, we can determine the critical height,” explains Harshita Gandhi, lead researcher of the project. “We then use this data in conjunction with a geometric model that tracks the true speed of CMEs in three dimensions, allowing for precise predictions.”
Research significance for safeguarding technology on Earth
The new findings on critical height and CME speed not only allow for more accurate predictions of solar storms but also their potential impacts. While solar storms pose no direct harm to humans, they can disrupt technology. For example, a solar storm in May 2024 affected GPS systems used in farming operations, as reported by CBS News.
“Our research not only enhances our understanding of the sun’s explosive behavior but also significantly improves our ability to predict space weather events,” adds Gandhi. “This means better preparation and protection for the technological systems we rely on daily.”
A shield against solar storms for modern infrastructure
Accurately predicting the arrival time of CMEs is crucial for timely activation of protective measures for satellites and power grids. For instance, power grid operators can temporarily shut down systems or take actions to prevent damage from sudden power fluctuations. Similarly, satellite operators can switch off sensitive instruments and put satellites into safe modes.
Advances in predicting solar flares and their effects are a critical step in securing the lifelines of modern society, from internet communication to power supply. As our dependence on technology continues to grow, these predictions could be vital in ensuring the continued functioning of our world.
