A recent analysis by Dresden University of Technology (TU) reveals that the far-right AfD has established itself as a “workers’ party” in Saxony. This study examines voter trends and key issues influencing the recent state elections.
AfD’s strong appeal to working-class voters
According to the analysis conducted by researchers at TU Dresden’s Mercator Forum Migration and Democracy, the AfD has solidified its position as a “workers’ party” in Saxony. The party garnered 45% of the votes among working-class voters in Saxony, and an even higher 49% in Thuringia.
The study also found that the CDU (Christian Democratic Union) and the Alliance Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) were predominantly chosen by older voters (60+) in both states. In contrast, the AfD performed significantly worse in this age group compared to middle-aged and younger voters.
Shifting voter demographics and key issues
The Left Party experienced substantial losses among voters aged 60 and above in both states. The researchers noted, “A particularly large portion of their former voter base has clearly turned their backs on the party in these voter groups.” The Greens, on the other hand, lost more than half of their vote share among 18- to 24-year-olds compared to the 2019 state elections.
The analysis also revealed that AfD’s electoral success was stronger in rural, less densely populated areas and in communities further away from the state’s population centers.
Immigration, internal security, crime, and social security were identified as the most crucial issues influencing voters’ decisions in Saxony. The AfD was perceived as having the highest problem-solving competence in immigration and internal security matters in both states.
Final election results and implications
In the Saxony election, the CDU secured 31.9% of the votes, closely followed by the AfD with 30.6%. The BSW achieved 11.8% in its debut, while the SPD and Greens received 7.3% and 5.1% respectively. The Left Party slipped to 4.5% but will still enter the state parliament due to winning two direct mandates in Leipzig. The FDP (Free Democratic Party) became insignificant with just 0.9% of the votes.
The FDP’s deputy state leader commented that the election campaign in Saxony resembled a mini federal election campaign, which he believes harmed the liberal party’s chances.
