Sales of heat pumps in Germany have plummeted, largely due to widespread fears and problematic policies. Despite the current low prices for these systems, the debate surrounding them has been less than constructive.
In Germany, few topics have been as hotly debated in recent months as the installation of heat pumps, whether for new builds or as replacements for old oil or gas heating systems. Unfortunately, the quality of this debate has been poor, contributing to a significant decline in heat pump sales.
Recent reports highlight the severity of the situation: only 90,000 heat pumps were sold in the first half of 2024, according to the Federal Association of the German Heating Industry (BDH). This represents a 54% drop compared to the same period last year. The BDH had initially set a target of 500,000 installations for the year but now forecasts a maximum of 200,000 by December.
Misconceptions and missed opportunities
Public fears about heat pumps are largely unfounded. Many people believe that installing a heat pump will result in cold winters, decreased property value, or skyrocketing costs. Notably, Hubert Aiwanger, a heat pump expert who also serves as the Bavarian Minister of Economic Affairs and Deputy Prime Minister, has contributed to these misconceptions by suggesting that Berlin’s policies might adversely affect Munich’s heating systems.
Such misinformation has clearly impacted consumer behavior. The reluctance to adopt heat pumps, often driven by a wait-and-see attitude, is costing homeowners. For new constructions, heat pumps are typically the most efficient and practical heating solution. For existing buildings, their effectiveness depends on whether the property has been renovated in the last 30 years.
Economic benefits and future prospects
From an economic standpoint, the real estate market has already adjusted to the benefits of heat pumps. Properties equipped with heat pumps are listed at prices up to 40% higher on real estate platforms like ImmoScout24 compared to those without. Adding a photovoltaic system to the mix can further increase property value. This trend is expected to continue due to rising CO₂ prices, which will make oil and gas more expensive, and stricter energy standards.
For those still concerned about winter performance, it is worth noting that in countries like Sweden, Denmark, France, and Norway—where winters are generally colder than in Germany—heat pumps are already the norm. There have been no reports of freezing issues in homes heated by these systems in these colder regions.
In summary, while the current debate over heat pumps in Germany is marred by misinformation and policy challenges, the technology remains a cost-effective and valuable option for both new and existing properties. The ongoing support from the government, including substantial subsidies, makes now an ideal time to consider heat pump installation before potential policy changes and increasing costs make it less affordable.
