Should Marine Le Pen’s party win the elections in France, Germany would face multiple pressures. Disputes in asylum and defense policies are anticipated. However, the threat of France cutting off Germany from the power grid may turn out to be an empty threat.
Experts in Germany are increasingly worried that a future French government led by the right-wing National Rally (RN) under populist Marine Le Pen could severely impact Franco-German relations and the EU.
“Marine Le Pen has long been a fierce critic of German policies. Tensions are expected in many areas, such as foreign and security policy, as well as trade and energy,” says Anja Czymmeck, head of the France office of the CDU-affiliated Konrad Adenauer Foundation (KAS). The Centre for European Policy (CEP) warns in its July newsletter: “If the RN under Marine Le Pen and party leader Jordan Bardella manages to secure an absolute majority in the National Assembly, the entire EU could be at risk.”
According to Jacob Ross, a France expert at the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP), Le Pen perceives the EU as operating to the detriment of her country and favoring Germany. He and Czymmeck expect that energy policy will become a contentious issue between the two largest EU states. “Marine Le Pen advocates for French nuclear energy and is one of the sharpest critics of the German stance. She has recently announced plans to disconnect France from the European power grid,” Czymmeck explains.
Cutting off Germany from power grid could backfire
Ross explains that Le Pen’s party has historically used energy policy to generate anti-German sentiment, creating the impression that the French nuclear industry was politically sacrificed on the altar of the German energy transition. Germany is one of the largest consumers of French electricity, and Le Pen’s party believes the current prices are too low, aiming instead to offer lower costs to the French population. A new right-wing government in France would need to breach numerous EU agreements to immediately withdraw from existing supply arrangements, facing either protracted negotiations in Brussels or hefty fines.
Ross therefore finds the argument of the current French government convincing: “Many of the widely publicized withdrawals from European mechanisms would come back like a boomerang.” He adds, however, that Le Pen and her followers might accept conflicts with the European Court of Justice to demonstrate to voters: “See, we want to, but the EU won’t let us.” The CEP fears that France may cease to be a driving force in the EU.
Reopening the asylum package, defense projects under pressure
Le Pen is likely to oppose EU policies from Paris, especially those she views as disadvantageous to France. High on her agenda are stricter European immigration rules. Former head of the European Border and Coast Guard Agency (Frontex), Fabrice Leggeri, now serves in the European Parliament for her party and might strive to unravel the recently hard-fought EU asylum and migration package.
In Franco-German relations, KAS expert Czymmeck predicts that defense cooperation would come under pressure if Jordan Bardella, an RN leader, becomes prime minister. Joint projects for fighter jets and tanks could be at risk, as Le Pen views them as “an absolute negation of French strategic identity.” Given Le Pen’s past positions and her alleged closeness to Russia, the future of France’s role in NATO and its support for Ukraine also appears uncertain.
Will Germany have to bear Le Pen’s debts?
Germany might also be affected by the fiscal policies of a right-wing French government on the Eurozone. Ronja Kempin, a France expert at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP), notes in an analysis: “Even the announcement of new parliamentary elections has put French government bonds under pressure.” The country’s debt has been spiraling out of control for years, and costly social projects by the RN would exacerbate the situation. Kempin concludes: “Nervous markets will likely push France to the brink of insolvency. The EU will soon have to seriously consider the issue of joint debt liability.” Germany has consistently opposed such a collective liability.
Disagreement over an alliance between Le Pen and Meloni
Experts are divided on whether the longstanding Paris-Berlin axis could be replaced by an alliance between Le Pen and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni. Both populists aim to boost their countries’ influence in the EU and reduce Germany’s.
The CEP considers a new Paris-Rome axis possible, noting that French right-wing extremists have repeatedly stated their intent to “lead France out of the EU.” In Meloni, they find a powerful ally. However, the official RN program no longer includes an exit from the EU. Czymmeck comments: “Even though Le Pen no longer advocates for ‘Frexit,’ the RN’s euroskeptic stance contrasts with Meloni, who works more constructively with EU institutions.”
“Weimar Triangle” between Paris, Berlin, and Warsaw under pressure
Czymmeck is skeptical about the potential for a solid alliance. Ross from DGAP notes the close past connections between Italian and French far-right groups.
Both Ross and Czymmeck expect that the cooperation within the “Weimar Triangle” between Germany, Poland, and France would suffer under a government change in Paris. “It would rather become a German-Polish affair,” predicts Ross. Czymmeck concludes: “Germany and Poland may now have to assume a new key role, but without the third partner on board.”
