DB Schenker sale looms: Unions fear massive job cuts

The sale of Deutsche Bahn’s logistics subsidiary, DB Schenker, is approaching its final stages. Danish logistics company DSV appears to be the frontrunner in the acquisition, potentially leading to a significant merger in the logistics industry.

The long-running sale saga nears its end

The seemingly endless sale saga of Deutsche Bahn’s logistics subsidiary, DB Schenker, is finally nearing its conclusion. Recently, the two remaining interested parties submitted binding purchase offers, which cannot be easily withdrawn. Both the financial investor group led by CVC and the Danish logistics company DSV have reportedly bid “around 14 billion euros” for the railway subsidiary.

This situation has resulted in a stalemate. The focus now shifts to who is willing to put more on the table. In other words, who values Schenker more for the future? Will it be one of the largest private investors based in Luxembourg, who might quickly take the logistics company public to profit from a resale? Or will it be DSV, which would complete its international freight forwarding strategy with the potential purchase?

DSV emerges as the favorite

According to investor opinion, the favorite seems to be quickly identified: the capital market suggests that no one else is capable of integrating such a complex player as the railway subsidiary into their own structures and managing it profitably. No one else would benefit as strongly: Bernstein Institute analysts estimate that the value of DSV’s stock would increase by 40% if the Nordic company were to win the bid.

This would mark a fairytale rise: in just 30 years, from a small group of unknown local logistics providers to the industry leader in freight forwarding, potentially surpassing established players like DHL or Kühne+Nagel. Who are these Danes reaching for one of Germany’s most important companies? And what do they plan to do with Schenker?

DSV’s background and growth strategy

Founded in 1976 by ten independent hauliers, DSV began its international ascent 20 years later through a series of mergers. The company transports goods by land, sea, and air to an increasing number of locations worldwide, without owning trucks, ships, or aircraft, instead purchasing these services from others. This “asset-light” model, also used by K+N and Schenker, allows companies to remain flexible. Their strength lies in knowledge of processes and networks.

DSV has grown rapidly, primarily through company acquisitions, which are considered one of the company’s absolute strengths. “Many large acquisitions fail to meet expectations or go wrong – not so with DSV,” says long-time logistics expert and Fraunhofer researcher Peter Klaus. The company has significantly expanded through acquisitions at least ten times, resulting in even higher profits and industry-best margins.

Observers attribute the success of these acquisitions to DSV’s typical business approach, described as somewhat “plain” and “old school”: a lean administration, clear hierarchy, and target setting. While others might become more diverse and “fancy” with increasing success, DSV has changed little even after the lucrative Corona years for logistics companies.

Potential challenges and union opposition

Whether this approach will work with Schenker remains to be seen. From an expert perspective, the deal could be worthwhile for DSV. The German logistics company is considered one of the industry leaders, especially in land transport, with strong networks in the USA, Central and Eastern Europe regions. The Danes are also considered strong on the road, but in other regions. Both could benefit from this and fill each other’s gaps.

However, unions are already campaigning against the sale before it happens. “If it’s DSV, we expect a larger job cut,” Stefan Thyroke, Verdi’s federal group leader for logistics, told Tagesschau. While the exact number of potential job losses is unclear, this assessment isn’t entirely incorrect given the potential combined workforce of 150,000 employees and significant structural overlaps.

The deal’s completion ultimately depends on the approval of the German government, as the owner of Deutsche Bahn. Logistics expert Klaus also sees risks that the Danes could overreach with this deal. “Even though DSV has successfully incorporated ten companies, Schenker is a different dimension due to its grown structures and size,” he says. If DSV does win the bid, it will be “a risk for both.” Schenker could lose thousands of positions, while for DSV, it could mark the end of a rise.