The sale of DB Schenker is approaching its final stage, with many indications pointing towards the Danish logistics company DSV as the likely buyer. If the acquisition goes through, it could result in a challenging merger.
The seemingly endless saga surrounding the sale of DB Schenker, the logistics subsidiary of Deutsche Bahn, is indeed nearing its conclusion. Just a few days ago, the two remaining interested parties submitted binding purchase offers that they cannot easily withdraw. Reports suggest that both the investment group led by CVC and the Danish logistics company DSV have offered around €14 billion for the Deutsche Bahn subsidiary.
It’s now a deadlock, and the next step is to see who is willing to put more money on the table. In other words, who values Schenker more for the future? Will it be one of the largest private investors based in Luxembourg, who might quickly take the logistics company public to profit from its resale? Or DSV, which could complete its international freight strategy with this potential purchase?
According to investors, the favorite seems to be clear: Only the Danes are seen as capable of integrating such a complex player as the Deutsche Bahn subsidiary into their own structures and managing it profitably, according to the capital markets. No other company would benefit as much: Analysts at the Bernstein Institute estimate that DSV’s share value could increase by 40% if the Nordic company secures the deal.
This would be a fairy-tale rise: In just 30 years, DSV has transformed from a small group of unknown local logisticians into a leading freight company that could outpace industry giants like DHL or Kühne+Nagel. But who are these Danes, who are reaching for one of the most important German companies? And what are their plans for Schenker?
What is known about DSV
Founded in 1976 by ten independent hauliers, DSV began its international rise 20 years later through a series of mergers. The company transports goods by land, sea, and air to an increasing number of locations worldwide, without owning its own trucks, ships, or planes, instead purchasing these services from others. This “asset light” model, also used by companies like K+N and Schenker, keeps the business flexible. The strength lies in the knowledge of processes and the network.
And DSV’s network has grown rapidly, primarily through company acquisitions, which are considered one of the company’s absolute strengths.
“Many large acquisitions do not meet expectations or go wrong, but not at DSV,” says long-time logistics expert and Fraunhofer researcher Peter Klaus. DSV has significantly grown at least ten times through acquisitions, including billion-dollar deals like Uti and the Swiss Panalpina. The result: profits have soared afterward. Margins, often the most crucial indicator of successful integration, have been industry bests for years.
Observers attribute the success of these acquisitions to DSV’s business approach, often described as “modest” and “old school” by those familiar with the company. It operates with lean management, clear hierarchy, and defined objectives.
While others diversify and become “fancy” with increasing success, one observer notes that DSV has changed little, even after the lucrative years of the COVID-19 pandemic for logistics companies. The company’s headquarters are located in the middle of nowhere in Denmark, far from the capital. The group has been led for almost two decades by the same core team, including Jens Andersen, who, as CEO, shaped the rise to the international number three. His right-hand man, CFO Jens Lund, who took over as CEO this spring, orchestrated the strategic direction, was directly responsible for the growth trajectory, and managed the company acquisitions.
As streamlined and routine as the company appears, it is equally rigorous in its takeovers. Many see this as a kind of program: duplicate structures are quickly eliminated, and basics like IT, marketing, and customer outreach are standardized. Throughout this process, management avoids getting bogged down in internal conflicts, maintaining a clear vision of how to leverage the respective strengths.
Unions oppose the deal
Will this approach work with Schenker? Experts believe the deal could indeed be worthwhile for DSV. The German logistics company is considered a leader in land transport, particularly in regions like the USA, Central, and Eastern Europe. The Danes are also strong in land transport but in different regions. Both companies could benefit from filling each other’s gaps.
They also complement each other in another category that is becoming increasingly important in overseas transport: negotiating power with shipping companies. The larger a logistics company’s volume, the more influence it has with shippers like Lufthansa or Hapag-Lloyd, a fact highlighted by the pandemic and the skyrocketing freight rates. The two giants, DHL and Kühne+Nagel, have benefited from volume discounts in the past. Schenker and DSV could close the gap together.
However, whether the deal goes through ultimately depends on Deutsche Bahn’s owner, the German government, which must approve the sale. It is already clear that DSV’s rigorous integration program is not universally welcomed. Unions are campaigning for Schenker to remain part of Deutsche Bahn.
“If DSV is the buyer, we expect significant job cuts,” said Stefan Thyroke, Verdi’s federal logistics group leader, to Tagesschau. No one can say how many jobs might be lost at this moment, but the concern is not unfounded, considering the combined workforce of around 150,000 employees and significant structural overlaps.
The problem could be mitigated with time-limited layoff protections in Germany, though it is unclear whether DSV would be willing to make concessions. Logistics expert Klaus also sees risks that the Danes could overextend themselves with this deal. “Even if DSV has successfully acquired ten companies, Schenker’s established structures and size represent a different dimension,” he says. If DSV does win the bid, it will be “a risk for both parties.” Schenker could lose thousands of jobs, and for DSV, it could mark the end of its upward trajectory.
