As tensions rise in the Middle East, Iran is not only preparing for military strikes but is also enhancing its cyber capabilities. Germany, as a close ally of Israel and the USA, finds itself increasingly targeted by these cyber operations.
Iran’s growing cyber capabilities
Experts are anticipating a retaliatory strike from Iran and further escalation in the Middle East. In Germany, debates are ongoing about how the Bundeswehr might support Israel in the event of such a conflict. While a decision on Germany’s military involvement is yet to be made, significant risks are already emerging, particularly due to Iran’s advancements in cyber warfare, making Germany a potential target.
Over recent years, the Iranian regime has significantly expanded its cyber capabilities, with operations now ranging from espionage and sabotage to targeted influence. Between 2013 and 2021, the budget for developing these capabilities increased twelve-fold, reaching $1 billion by 2016. As a key ally of Israel and the USA, Germany represents the West, against which Iran’s cyber operations are directed. These cyber attacks are a central part of Iran’s asymmetric warfare strategy, allowing the country to challenge technologically superior opponents without relying on conventional military means.
Significant damage potential in cyber attacks
Tehran has increasingly targeted the IT and technology sectors, defense industries, and critical infrastructures in Israel and the USA. A notable example is a cyberattack on a US water utility last year by a pro-Iranian group, highlighting the severity of the threat. This strategy enables Iran to avoid the risks and costs of direct military confrontation while still being able to inflict significant damage and pursue its geopolitical interests.
Iranian cyber units quickly adapt their targets based on the regime’s current interests, using cyberattacks to cause political and economic instability. By crippling essential services such as utilities, banks, and stock exchanges, they aim to destabilize societies. In Germany, critical infrastructures, including water plants and power grids, could be similarly targeted, leading to potentially devastating consequences for both the population and the economy.
Germany’s need for preparation
Germany must recognize Iran as a serious cyber threat and enhance its counter-espionage efforts. Companies and authorities, particularly those managing critical infrastructure, should strengthen their digital defenses without waiting for the implementation of the EU-NIS2 Directive. Moreover, Germany should reassess its scientific and technological cooperation with Iran, particularly in security-related fields and with dual-use technologies, to prevent the transfer of knowledge and technology that could be exploited for cyber warfare.
Given the ongoing and escalating tensions in the Middle East, Germany must prepare for further cyberattacks from Iran and take appropriate precautions. The Iranian regime’s cyber units have demonstrated their ability to rapidly adapt to geopolitical developments, and a similar level of adaptability will be required in Germany to mitigate potential damage.
