A new Covid-19 wave is sweeping through Germany this autumn. The Robert Koch Institute reports rising case numbers, with a new variant becoming dominant in the country.
For about four to five weeks, both the viral load in wastewater and the Covid-19 incidences estimated by the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) have been increasing in Germany. “The rise in SARS-CoV-2 activity continues in the general population and in outpatient settings,” states the current RKI weekly report.
Experts expect the autumn Covid wave to gain momentum and case numbers to continue rising. “A new wave, driven by the KP.3 variant, is indeed emerging,” epidemiologist Prof. Markus Scholz tells t-online. He notes that this is the eleventh Covid variant to become dominant in Germany, adding that Covid continues to contribute significantly to the disease burden.
According to Scholz, the rapid variant changes mean that the characteristic seasonal pattern seen in diseases like flu doesn’t occur with Covid. “In total, we’ve counted twelve infection waves since the beginning of the pandemic, varying in intensity,” the epidemiologist says.
However, the strength of the current autumn wave is still difficult to estimate. The last five waves showed comparable intensity regarding critical cases (severe courses and hospitalizations).
Explanation: Scientists primarily focus on critical cases when assessing the Covid situation. Reported infection numbers are significantly underestimated due to minimal testing in the population.
Virus variant KP.3.1.1 – Initial findings from Japan
What do we know about the sub-variant KP.3.1.1, which currently accounts for over 70 percent of Covid infections in Germany? Does it differ from other Omicron offshoots or is it more dangerous?
There are no definitive answers yet. However, KP.3.1.1 is a descendant of the JN.1 lineage and is already predominant in several countries. According to a new study by Japanese scientists published in “The Lancet”, KP.3.1.1 could have a significant fitness advantage over its predecessors. “KP.3.1.1 has a substantially higher reproduction number than its predecessors KP.2, KP.2.3, and KP.3,” they assess. This means KP.3.1.1 is more contagious and more difficult for human antibodies to fend off.
Scholz says this fitness advantage merely results in the variant becoming dominant. He adds, “This has essentially been the case with every variant combination that has become dominant in Germany in the past. So it’s not unusual.” He finds the variant’s danger potential difficult to calculate at present, stating that the likelihood of severe courses in infections and the effectiveness of existing immunization in the population against the variant are unknown. These questions, he says, are currently important to clarify.
Why the coronavirus constantly produces new variants: The coronavirus mutates frequently because it’s an RNA virus that introduces small errors (mutations) in its genetic code with each replication. These mutations occur randomly, but some can give the virus advantages, such as higher transmissibility, better immune evasion, or resistance to certain treatments like vaccines and medications.
Protective measures remain important
The symptoms of KP.3.1.1 reportedly resemble those of earlier Covid variants, including classic symptoms like fever, cough, sore throat, headache, muscle pain, breathing difficulties, and loss of smell and taste.
Although the exact severity and vaccine efficacy against KP.3.1.1 are still being observed and studied, experts believe current vaccines continue to offer protection. An adapted Biontech vaccine has been available in Germany since mid-August 2024. According to the Standing Committee on Vaccination (STIKO), booster shots are recommended for people over 60, those with pre-existing conditions, or healthcare workers. STIKO advises that autumn is the ideal time for vaccination.
